by PRIsm Information Network
When Republican Rep. Jerry Weller announced he would not seek an eighth term from his Joliet-anchored 11th congressional district, both parties began preparing for a tough open seat contest. Though Weller had averaged 58% of the vote in his seven elections and the seat was crafted to elect a Republican in the 2001 redistricting plan, Democrats believed their consensus candidate, state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson , had the inside track to winning in November. When then-GOP nominee Tim Baldermann withdrew from the race after winning the February 5th Republican primary, the district became one of the most likely seats in the nation to switch parties. Now, however, Halvorson is hitting some potholes and her presumed road to victory may not be so easy.
First, it is apparent that the legislative leader's strong support for scandal-tainted Gov. Rod Blagojevich isn't helping her, and the fact that the state's General Assembly is held in even lower esteem than he becomes a greater negative. This somewhat neutralizes President Bush's poor approval ratings – an albatross that hampers virtually every Republican candidate nationwide. Second, while she is serving her third term in the state Senate – and has won impressive re-election victories -- only 16% of the legislative district is contained within the congressional boundaries.
Third, the recent Tony Rezko conviction is proving to be a problem – and her most serious one at this juncture of the campaign. At the beginning of June, Rezko, a close confidant of the Governor was convicted of literally selling appointments to Illinois boards and commissions, receiving guilty verdicts on 16 of the 24 federal counts brought against him. Though Halvorson claims to have not even known the now-convicted felon, her own legislation pertaining to the proposed Abraham Lincoln National Airport – to be built in this congressional district -- contains the very provision for which Rezko himself was lobbying.
According to Rick Bryant, the executive director of the Abraham Lincoln National Airport Commission, it was Rezko who was demanding that the board positions governing the new airport be appointed by the Governor instead of choosing them through elections. Halvorson's bill, SB 2063, contained the appointment language and while the legislation sailed through the Senate, it became bogged down in the state House over this very provision. As a result, Halvorson lost her chairmanship of the powerful Rules Committee, and her congressional campaign
retreated. To illustrate the inactivity, her last political news release dates back all the way to May 8th.
The new Republican nominee, businessman Marty Ozinga , was officially chosen by the local GOP committees on April 30th to replace Baldermann on the ballot. In a month's time, he had raised over $440,000, including about $100,000 of his own money. Estimates project that he may be well into high $600,000's for the current financial disclosure period just ended (dollar amounts will be made public after July 15th). Ozinga's campaign is on offense, a professional staff is now in place, and he recently unveiled his own comprehensive energy plan with great fanfare. So, it is safe to say that Mr. Ozinga, while largely unknown, is improving Republican prospects in this district everyday.
While Ms. Halvorson will still clearly benefit from home state Sen. Barack Obama driving Illinois Democratic turnout at the presidential level, and she will have all the money she needs to run a strong campaign, IL-11 is once again turning into a horse race. President Bush enjoyed a seven-point edge here in 2004, even while losing statewide 55-44% . The Joliet metropolitan area is the fastest growing region in the entire Midwest; and while the state as a whole will lose at least one congressional seat in the next reapportionment, this part of the Illinois is growing robustly.
Republicans are experiencing bad times in the Land of Lincoln, but the trends of the last 30 days in this open seat are beginning to give them some reason to smile. The IL-11 race is definitely becoming a campaign to watch.
